India bonds hemmed in as market digests higher rates
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The Reserve Bank of India has increased its key policy rate by 25 basis points, raising it to 5.50%. This adjustment signifies a strategic step towards cautious monetary tightening shaped by global economic developments. Traders are exercising caution due to heightened global yields and soaring crude oil prices impacting the bond market.
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Loading...×Indian government bonds traded in a narrow range early Thursday as traders digested the Reserve Bank of India's first rate hike in nearly four years along with a shift to a "calibrated tightening" stance, signalling further policy action ahead.Elevated global yields and crude oil prices also kept sentiment guarded.
The benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond yield was flat at 7.2404% as of 11:00 a.m. IST. Bond yields rise when prices fall.
Bonds Corner Powered By India bonds sink deeper on RBI commentary, inflation concerns
Indian government bonds are currently facing notable losses, pushing the 10-year yield to its highest since March 2023. This downturn comes in the wake of hawkish remarks from Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra about financial stability. Additionally, India's wholesale inflation saw an unexpected rise in September, leading to growing concerns over potential future monetary policy shifts.
Indian bonds slip on higher oil, hawkish RBI governor commentsIndia's benchmark bond breaks 4-day falling streak as value investors returnIndia bonds rise as investors see value after 10-year yield nears 7.40%Bond yields rise to 3-year high on RBI liquidity cut Browse all Bonds News withThe RBI raised its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% on Wednesday, abandoned its neutral stance and revised its inflation and growth projections higher.
The move aligns India with a broader wave of global monetary policy tightening, as major central banks raise interest rates.
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"We see (a) shallow rate hike cycle (by the RBI) of another 50 basis points over next 6 months to align with global macro drop," said Kaustubh Gupta, chief investment officer, fixed income, at Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC.
Traders expect tighter domestic financial conditions and potential RBI liquidity absorption to keep bond prices under pressure.
Contrary to market expectations, the central bank did not announce any additional measures to drain surplus liquidity from the banking system on Wednesday.
"We believe the RBI is likely to maintain its focus on liquidity management. Rate hikes without corresponding liquidity tightening could prove less effective," said Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings.
The RBI sold bonds worth 1 trillion rupees ($10.35 billion) by last month, the largest amount in at least a decadeand may announce more such operations, traders said.
The Indian debt market is also grappling with supply pressures as states and the central government plan to raise their issuance of longer-dated notes in the coming months.
Rates
India's overnight indexed swap rates traded mixed as investors searched for fresh cues.The one-year OIS rate fell 1 bp to 6.24%, the two-year rate dropped 1.25 bps to 6.44%, and the liquid five-year rate held at to 6.7250%.
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Figures reflect the source report and its stated period. This article is for information and is not investment advice.



